Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
Venezia
20th · 3 pts1–0FULL TIME
Napoli
7th · 14 pts13% Venezia
18% Draw
69% Napoli
OUR PICK
Napoli to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
0.84 – 2.22
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.80X5.4121.46
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.15
X2
87%
Season stats
VeneziaNapoli0.6Goals per game1.9
2.0Conceded per game1.2
0.30Points per game1.56
10%Win rate44%
-14Goal difference6
3Form, last 5 (pts)8
Venezia form
LLLWLA Como1–0
H Inter0–2
A Genoa1–0
H Napoli1–0
A Atalanta3–1
Napoli form
DWDWLA Juventus0–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Head to head
1
Venezia
1
Draw
3
Napoli
Oct 2026Venezia – Napoli1–0
Mar 2025Venezia – Napoli0–0
Dec 2024Napoli – Venezia1–0
Feb 2022Venezia – Napoli0–2
Aug 2021Napoli – Venezia2–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Napoli clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (0.84 for Venezia, 2.22 for Napoli), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Venezia sit 20th on 3 points; Napoli are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.