Over 1.5 goals@2.21
Over 1.5
45%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Jose Amalfitani
Velez Sarsfield
3rd · 28 pts2–2FULL TIME
San Lorenzo
7th · 22 pts45% Velez
35% Draw
20% San
OUR PICK
Velez Sarsfield to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.23X2.8624.97
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.25
Both scoreGG3.63NG1.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.36
NG
74%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Velez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo1.1Goals per game0.9
0.8Conceded per game0.9
1.75Points per game1.38
44%Win rate31%
6Goal difference0
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Velez Sarsfield form
DWWLDH San Lorenzo2–2
A Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5
H Gimnasia M.1–0
A Lanus2–0
H Platense2–2
San Lorenzo form
DDWWLA Velez Sarsfield2–2
H Newells Old Boys0–0
A Estudiantes L.P.1–2
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Head to head
1
Velez
3
Draw
1
San
Oct 2026Velez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo2–2
Apr 2026San Lorenzo – Velez Sarsfield0–0
Aug 2025San Lorenzo – Velez Sarsfield1–0
Feb 2025Velez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo0–0
Sept 2024San Lorenzo – Velez Sarsfield0–1
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Velez Sarsfield slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.98 for Velez Sarsfield, 0.55 for San Lorenzo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd on 28 points; San Lorenzo are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.