Over 1.5 goals@2.35
Over 1.5
43%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Monday, 5 October 2026 · Jose Amalfitani
Velez Sarsfield
3rd · 28 pts2–2FULL TIME
Platense
12th · 16 pts51% Velez
35% Draw
14% Platense
OUR PICK
Velez Sarsfield to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.41
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X2.8926.94
Goals 2.5Over5.24Under1.22
Both scoreGG4.29NG1.28
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.22
Under 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.28
NG
78%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
Velez SarsfieldPlatense1.1Goals per game0.6
0.8Conceded per game0.9
1.75Points per game1.00
44%Win rate19%
6Goal difference-5
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Velez Sarsfield form
DWWLDH San Lorenzo2–2
A Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5
H Gimnasia M.1–0
A Lanus2–0
H Platense2–2
Platense form
DWLDDA Atletico Tucuman1–1
A Gimnasia M.1–2
H Lanus0–1
H Argentinos JRS1–1
A Velez Sarsfield2–2
Head to head
2
Velez
2
Draw
1
Platense
Oct 2026Velez Sarsfield – Platense2–2
Mar 2026Platense – Velez Sarsfield0–2
Jul 2025Platense – Velez Sarsfield0–0
Jan 2025Velez Sarsfield – Platense0–1
Jul 2024Platense – Velez Sarsfield0–2
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Velez Sarsfield clear favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.4 goals in total (1.04 for Velez Sarsfield, 0.41 for Platense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd on 28 points; Platense are 12th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.