Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 13Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Jose Amalfitani
Velez Sarsfield
3rd · 28 pts1–0FULL TIME
Gimnasia M.
11th · 19 pts59% Velez
25% Draw
16% Gimnasia
OUR PICK
Velez Sarsfield to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X4.0326.19
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M.1.1Goals per game0.9
0.8Conceded per game1.4
1.75Points per game1.19
44%Win rate31%
6Goal difference-8
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Velez Sarsfield form
DWWLDH San Lorenzo2–2
A Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5
H Gimnasia M.1–0
A Lanus2–0
H Platense2–2
Gimnasia M. form
DLLWLA Lanus1–1
H Platense1–2
A Velez Sarsfield1–0
H Newells Old Boys1–0
A Estudiantes L.P.3–0
Head to head
1
Velez
0
Draw
1
Gimnasia
Oct 2026Velez Sarsfield – Gimnasia M.1–0
Apr 2026Gimnasia M. – Velez Sarsfield3–2
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Velez Sarsfield clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.60 for Velez Sarsfield, 0.70 for Gimnasia M.), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd on 28 points; Gimnasia M. are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.