Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Thursday, 29 October 2026 · São Januário
Vasco DA Gama
13th · 38 pts1–4FULL TIME
Flamengo
1st · 73 pts19% Vasco
22% Draw
58% Flamengo
OUR PICK
Flamengo to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.86
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.23X4.4621.71
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.24
X2
81%
Season stats
Vasco DA GamaFlamengo1.3Goals per game2.1
1.5Conceded per game0.8
1.19Points per game2.21
31%Win rate67%
-9Goal difference40
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Vasco DA Gama form
LLWLLA Palmeiras1–0
H Flamengo1–4
H Corinthians3–2
H Boca Juniors1–3
A Sao Paulo1–0
Flamengo form
WWDWDA Vasco DA Gama1–4
H Atletico-MG3–2
H Estudiantes L.P.0–0
A Bahia0–3
A Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Head to head
0
Vasco
3
Draw
2
Flamengo
Oct 2026Vasco DA Gama – Flamengo1–4
May 2026Flamengo – Vasco DA Gama2–2
Jan 2026Flamengo – Vasco DA Gama1–0
Sept 2025Flamengo – Vasco DA Gama1–1
Apr 2025Vasco DA Gama – Flamengo0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.96 for Vasco DA Gama, 1.86 for Flamengo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 38 points; Flamengo are 1st on 73.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.