Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Saturday, 24 October 2026 · São Januário
Vasco DA Gama
13th · 38 pts3–2FULL TIME
Corinthians
17th · 36 pts40% Vasco
28% Draw
32% Corinthians
OUR PICK
Vasco DA Gama to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.52
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.52X3.5823.09
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Vasco DA GamaCorinthians1.3Goals per game1.1
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.19Points per game1.09
31%Win rate27%
-9Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Vasco DA Gama form
LLWLLA Palmeiras1–0
H Flamengo1–4
H Corinthians3–2
H Boca Juniors1–3
A Sao Paulo1–0
Corinthians form
WLDLLH Mirassol2–0
A Vasco DA Gama3–2
H Vitoria1–1
A Palmeiras4–1
A Internacional2–1
Head to head
1
Vasco
1
Draw
3
Corinthians
Oct 2026Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians3–2
Apr 2026Corinthians – Vasco DA Gama1–0
Dec 2025Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians1–2
Dec 2025Corinthians – Vasco DA Gama0–0
Aug 2025Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians2–3
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Vasco DA Gama 40%, the draw 28%, Corinthians 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.25 for Vasco DA Gama, 1.10 for Corinthians), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 38 points; Corinthians are 17th on 36.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.