Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
HUNNB I · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion
Vasas
6th · 16 pts0–2FULL TIME
Paks
5th · 17 pts57% Vasas
20% Draw
23% Paks
OUR PICK
Vasas to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.45
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X5.1224.32
Goals 2.5Over1.37Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.24
12
80%
Season stats
VasasPaks1.7Goals per game1.8
1.4Conceded per game1.8
1.33Points per game1.42
33%Win rate42%
3Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Vasas form
DWLLDA Gyori ETO FC2–2
A Szentlőrinc SE3–4
H Paks0–2
A MTK Budapest1–0
H Kisvarda FC1–1
Paks form
LWWLWA Ferencvarosi TC2–0
A Cigand SE1–2
A Vasas0–2
H Gyori ETO FC1–2
H MTK Budapest3–0
Head to head
2
Vasas
0
Draw
3
Paks
Oct 2026Vasas – Paks0–2
Apr 2024Vasas – Paks2–5
Jul 2023Paks – Vasas1–3
Mar 2023Vasas – Paks2–3
Mar 2023Paks – Vasas2–3
NB I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Gyori ETO FC12+722
2Puskas Academy12+221
3Ferencvarosi TC11+1020
4Debreceni VSC12+419
5Paks12+117
6Vasas12+316
7Ujpest11+215
8Budapest Honved11-313
9Zalaegerszegi TE12-613
10Kisvarda FC12-212
Match preview
Our model makes Vasas clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.34 for Vasas, 1.45 for Paks), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vasas sit 6th on 16 points; Paks are 5th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.