Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 12Monday, 2 November 2026 · Estadio José Zorrilla
Valladolid
16th · 12 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Leganes
17th · 12 pts59% Valladolid
24% Draw
17% Leganes
OUR PICK
Valladolid to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.78
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X4.1925.87
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.79
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.79
NG
56%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
ValladolidLeganes1.5Goals per game0.6
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.09Points per game1.09
27%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-9
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Valladolid form
No recent matches.
Leganes form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Valladolid
0
Draw
0
Leganes
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Girona12+1121
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Valladolid clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.69 for Valladolid, 0.78 for Leganes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Valladolid sit 16th on 12 points; Leganes are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.