Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estadio José Zorrilla
Valladolid
13th · 15 pts5–0FULL TIME
Albacete
21st · 7 pts53% Valladolid
24% Draw
24% Albacete
OUR PICK
Valladolid to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.10
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X4.2424.19
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
ValladolidAlbacete1.7Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game1.9
1.25Points per game0.58
33%Win rate17%
1Goal difference-13
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Valladolid form
WWLLWH Leganes4–3
A Covadonga0–1
A Granada CF2–1
H Eldense2–3
H Albacete5–0
Albacete form
WWLLLH Sabadell2–1
H Eldense2–0
A Sporting Gijon2–1
A Valladolid5–0
H Eibar1–3
Head to head
1
Valladolid
1
Draw
3
Albacete
Oct 2026Valladolid – Albacete5–0
Jan 2026Valladolid – Albacete0–1
Sept 2025Albacete – Valladolid2–0
Feb 2024Valladolid – Albacete0–0
Sept 2023Albacete – Valladolid2–0
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Valladolid slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.75 for Valladolid, 1.10 for Albacete), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Valladolid sit 13th on 15 points; Albacete are 21st on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.