Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia
19th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Villarreal
9th · 12 pts30% Valencia
29% Draw
41% Villarreal
OUR PICK
Villarreal to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.33X3.4622.43
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.79
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.79
NG
56%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
ValenciaVillarreal0.7Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.4
0.82Points per game1.09
18%Win rate27%
-9Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Valencia form
WLDDLA Elche0–1
H Villarreal1–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Racing Santander2–2
H Real Sociedad2–3
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Head to head
0
Valencia
2
Draw
3
Villarreal
Oct 2026Valencia – Villarreal1–2
Feb 2026Villarreal – Valencia2–1
Oct 2025Valencia – Villarreal0–2
Feb 2025Villarreal – Valencia1–1
Aug 2024Valencia – Villarreal1–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Villarreal slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.99 for Valencia, 1.21 for Villarreal), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Valencia sit 19th on 9 points; Villarreal are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.