Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia
19th · 9 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Real Madrid
3rd · 27 pts12% Valencia
19% Draw
68% Real
OUR PICK
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.07
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X218.16X5.1421.46
Goals 2.5Over1.88Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.14
X2
88%
Season stats
ValenciaReal Madrid0.7Goals per game2.5
1.5Conceded per game0.9
0.82Points per game2.45
18%Win rate82%
-9Goal difference18
5Form, last 5 (pts)12
Valencia form
WLDDLA Elche0–1
H Villarreal1–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Racing Santander2–2
H Real Sociedad2–3
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Head to head
1
Valencia
1
Draw
3
Real
Feb 2026Valencia – Real Madrid0–2
Nov 2025Real Madrid – Valencia4–0
Apr 2025Real Madrid – Valencia1–2
Jan 2025Valencia – Real Madrid1–2
Mar 2024Valencia – Real Madrid2–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.74 for Valencia, 2.07 for Real Madrid), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Valencia sit 19th on 9 points; Real Madrid are 3rd on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.