Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia
19th · 9 pts0–0FULL TIME
Athletic Club
7th · 15 pts23% Valencia
26% Draw
51% Athletic
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.50
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.32X3.8321.97
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
ValenciaAthletic Club0.7Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.0
0.82Points per game1.50
18%Win rate40%
-9Goal difference4
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Valencia form
WLDDLA Elche0–1
H Villarreal1–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Racing Santander2–2
H Real Sociedad2–3
Athletic Club form
WWWLDH Real Sociedad2–1
A Prat1–6
H Getafe4–0
A Levante3–1
A Valencia0–0
Head to head
2
Valencia
1
Draw
2
Athletic
Oct 2026Valencia – Athletic Club0–0
May 2026Athletic Club – Valencia0–1
Feb 2026Valencia – Athletic Club1–2
Sept 2025Valencia – Athletic Club2–0
May 2025Valencia – Athletic Club0–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.92 for Valencia, 1.50 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Valencia sit 19th on 9 points; Athletic Club are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.