Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 13Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank
V-varen Nagasaki
15th · 12 pts1–2FULL TIME
Tokyo Verdy
17th · 11 pts53% V-varen
25% Draw
22% Tokyo
OUR PICK
V-varen Nagasaki to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.9824.48
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
51%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
V-varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy1.2Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game1.7
0.92Points per game0.85
23%Win rate15%
-5Goal difference-11
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
V-varen Nagasaki form
No recent matches.
Tokyo Verdy form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
V-varen
0
Draw
0
Tokyo
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes V-varen Nagasaki clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.59 for V-varen Nagasaki, 0.94 for Tokyo Verdy), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
V-varen Nagasaki sit 15th on 12 points; Tokyo Verdy are 17th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.