SoccerVistaPredict
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank

V-varen Nagasaki

15th · 12 pts
4–0FULL TIME

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2nd · 29 pts
8% V-varen
16% Draw
76% Sanfrecce
OUR PICK
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win
Model probability 76% · fair odds
1.31
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.38
Confidence
Very high

Fair odds

From our model, no margin
1X2112.45X6.3921.31
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.09
X2
92%

Season stats

V-varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshima
1.2Goals per game2.5
1.6Conceded per game0.8
0.92Points per game2.23
23%Win rate69%
-5Goal difference22
4Form, last 5 (pts)12

V-varen Nagasaki form

LLWLD
H Tokyo Verdy1–2
A Urawa1–0
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
A Kashima2–0
A JEF United Chiba1–1

Sanfrecce Hiroshima form

WLWLW
A Mito Hollyhock0–3
A Yokohama F. Marinos4–3
H Shimizu S-pulse4–0
A V-varen Nagasaki4–0
H Kyoto Sanga3–0

Head to head

1
V-varen
0
Draw
4
Sanfrecce
Oct 2026V-varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
Apr 2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima – V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Feb 2026V-varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima1–3
Aug 2018Sanfrecce Hiroshima – V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Apr 2018V-varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2

J1 League table

#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616

Match preview

Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima clear favourites, giving them a 76% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (0.63 for V-varen Nagasaki, 2.38 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

V-varen Nagasaki sit 15th on 12 points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 2nd on 29.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on TelegramMore J1 League tips