Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
94%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht
12th · 12 pts3–1FULL TIME
Willem II
18th · 2 pts69% Utrecht
15% Draw
16% Willem
OUR PICK
Utrecht to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.45
Expected goals
3.09 – 1.49
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.45X6.6026.33
Goals 2.5Over1.20Under5.55
Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.20
Over 2.5
83%
Both teams to score@1.35
GG
74%
Double chance@1.18
12
85%
Season stats
UtrechtWillem II1.7Goals per game0.9
2.8Conceded per game3.5
1.09Points per game0.18
27%Win rate0%
-12Goal difference-29
7Form, last 5 (pts)0
Utrecht form
LWDWWA Telstar4–2
A Kozakken Boys0–1
H PEC Zwolle1–1
A Twente1–2
H Willem II3–1
Willem II form
LWLLLA PSV Eindhoven7–0
A Helmond Sport3–4
H Cambuur1–6
A Sparta Rotterdam3–2
A Utrecht3–1
Head to head
4
Utrecht
0
Draw
1
Willem
Oct 2026Utrecht – Willem II3–1
Mar 2025Willem II – Utrecht2–3
Sept 2024Utrecht – Willem II3–2
May 2022Willem II – Utrecht3–0
Oct 2021Utrecht – Willem II5–1
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Utrecht clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.6 goals in total (3.09 for Utrecht, 1.49 for Willem II), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Utrecht sit 12th on 12 points; Willem II are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.