Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht
12th · 12 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
NEC Nijmegen
13th · 11 pts37% Utrecht
21% Draw
42% NEC
OUR PICK
NEC Nijmegen to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.71X4.7222.38
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
73%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen1.7Goals per game1.5
2.8Conceded per game1.7
1.09Points per game1.00
27%Win rate18%
-12Goal difference-2
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Utrecht form
LWDWWA Telstar4–2
A Kozakken Boys0–1
H PEC Zwolle1–1
A Twente1–2
H Willem II3–1
NEC Nijmegen form
LDWDDA Heerenveen1–0
H Groningen2–2
A Dinamo Zagreb2–4
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Levski Sofia1–1
Head to head
4
Utrecht
0
Draw
1
NEC
Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen – Utrecht1–3
Nov 2025Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen1–0
Mar 2025Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen0–1
Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen – Utrecht1–2
Mar 2024Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen1–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Utrecht 37%, the draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.85 for Utrecht, 1.98 for NEC Nijmegen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Utrecht sit 12th on 12 points; NEC Nijmegen are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.