Over 1.5 goals@1.85
Over 1.5
54%
ALGLigue 1 · Matchday 5Tuesday, 13 October 2026
USM Alger
3rd · 14 pts1–0FULL TIME
JS Saoura
15th · 3 pts64% USM
26% Draw
9% JS
OUR PICK
USM Alger to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.37
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.55X3.80210.72
Goals 2.5Over3.49Under1.37
Both scoreGG3.93NG1.31
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Under 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.31
NG
76%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
USM AlgerJS Saoura1.4Goals per game0.0
0.7Conceded per game1.0
2.00Points per game0.50
57%Win rate0%
5Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
USM Alger form
WDDA CS Constantine0–2
H Panthers0–0
H CR Belouizdad2–2
JS Saoura form
DLLDH Ben Aknoun0–0
A MB Rouisset1–0
A USM Alger1–0
H Olympique Akbou0–0
Head to head
2
USM
0
Draw
3
JS
Oct 2026USM Alger – JS Saoura1–0
Mar 2026USM Alger – JS Saoura1–0
Feb 2026USM Alger – JS Saoura1–2
Sept 2025JS Saoura – USM Alger1–0
Apr 2025JS Saoura – USM Alger2–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1JS Kabylie7+816
2MC Oran7+515
3USM Alger7+514
4CR Belouizdad6+414
5MB Rouisset8+314
6MC Alger5+613
7Olympique Akbou7+311
8ES Setif7+28
9JS El Biar808
10Ben Aknoun708
Match preview
Our model makes USM Alger clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.44 for USM Alger, 0.37 for JS Saoura), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
USM Alger sit 3rd on 14 points; JS Saoura are 15th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.