JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Saitama Stadium 2002

Urawa

9th · 21 pts

1–0FULL TIME

V-varen Nagasaki

15th · 12 pts

45% Urawa

22% Draw

34% V-varen

OUR PICK

Urawa to win

Model probability 45% · fair odds

2.23

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.69

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.23X4.6422.97

Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25

Both scoreGG1.42NG3.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.14

Over 1.5

88%

Over/Under 2.5@1.41

Over 2.5

71%

Both teams to score@1.42

70%

Double chance@1.27

78%

Season stats

UrawaV-varen Nagasaki

1.6Goals per game1.2

2.1Conceded per game1.6

1.62Points per game0.92

54%Win rate23%

-6Goal difference-5

9Form, last 5 (pts)4

Urawa form

LWWWW

A Kashiwa Reysol4–0

A Nagoya Grampus1–2

H V-varen Nagasaki1–0

H JEF United Chiba3–2

A Mito Hollyhock0–1

V-varen Nagasaki form

LLWLD

H Tokyo Verdy1–2

A Urawa1–0

H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0

A Kashima2–0

A JEF United Chiba1–1

Head to head

Urawa

Draw

V-varen

Oct 2026Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki1–0

May 2024V-varen Nagasaki – Urawa1–0

Aug 2018Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki0–0

Mar 2018V-varen Nagasaki – Urawa1–1

J1 League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1FC Tokyo13+2330

2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229

3Machida Zelvia13+2028

4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028

5Vissel Kobe13+926

6Kashima13+723

7Kawasaki Frontale13+522

8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621

9Urawa13-621

10Fagiano Okayama13-616

Match preview

Our model makes Urawa slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.97 for Urawa, 1.69 for V-varen Nagasaki), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Urawa sit 9th on 21 points; V-varen Nagasaki are 15th on 12.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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