Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Saitama Stadium 2002
Urawa
9th · 21 pts3–2FULL TIME
JEF United Chiba
18th · 10 pts50% Urawa
22% Draw
28% JEF
OUR PICK
Urawa to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.37
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X4.4623.58
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
UrawaJEF United Chiba1.6Goals per game1.2
2.1Conceded per game1.8
1.62Points per game0.77
54%Win rate15%
-6Goal difference-9
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Urawa form
LWWWWA Kashiwa Reysol4–0
A Nagoya Grampus1–2
H V-varen Nagasaki1–0
H JEF United Chiba3–2
A Mito Hollyhock0–1
JEF United Chiba form
WDLDDH Avispa Fukuoka3–0
A Cerezo Osaka2–2
A Urawa3–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
H V-varen Nagasaki1–1
Head to head
3
Urawa
0
Draw
0
JEF
Oct 2026Urawa – JEF United Chiba3–2
May 2026Urawa – JEF United Chiba2–0
Feb 2026JEF United Chiba – Urawa0–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Urawa slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.89 for Urawa, 1.37 for JEF United Chiba), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Urawa sit 9th on 21 points; JEF United Chiba are 18th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.