Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 23Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estadio Ester Roa
Universidad de Concepcion
15th · 23 pts0–2FULL TIME
Huachipato
11th · 33 pts28% Universidad
26% Draw
46% Huachipato
OUR PICK
Huachipato to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.56X3.8422.18
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Universidad de ConcepcionHuachipato0.7Goals per game1.4
1.8Conceded per game1.6
0.88Points per game1.32
23%Win rate36%
-28Goal difference-6
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Universidad de Concepcion form
LLDLLA Colo Colo6–1
H Deportes Limache0–1
A Cobresal1–1
H Huachipato0–2
A Palestino2–1
Huachipato form
DDWWDH D. La Serena0–0
A A. Italiano1–1
H O'Higgins2–0
A Universidad de Concepcion0–2
H Colo Colo0–0
Head to head
0
Universidad
2
Draw
3
Huachipato
Oct 2026Universidad de Concepcion – Huachipato0–2
Apr 2026Huachipato – Universidad de Concepcion5–1
Nov 2020Universidad de Concepcion – Huachipato0–1
Feb 2020Huachipato – Universidad de Concepcion1–1
Aug 2019Universidad de Concepcion – Huachipato1–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Deportes Limache26+1140
5Everton de Vina26+1040
6Palestino26+238
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Concepción26-235
9Nublense26-935
10D. La Serena26-334
Match preview
Our model makes Huachipato slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.09 for Universidad de Concepcion, 1.47 for Huachipato), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Universidad de Concepcion sit 15th on 23 points; Huachipato are 11th on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.