Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
SWESuperettan · Matchday 27Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Sodertalje Fotbollsarena
United Nordic
8th · 42 pts2–1FULL TIME
Norrby IF
14th · 27 pts51% United
24% Draw
25% Norrby
OUR PICK
United Nordic to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.15
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.95X4.2323.97
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
United NordicNorrby IF1.6Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.45Points per game0.93
38%Win rate17%
-4Goal difference-13
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
United Nordic form
WLWLDH GIF Sundsvall4–2
A Ostersunds FK4–1
H Norrby IF2–1
A Oddevold2–0
A Orebro SK1–1
Norrby IF form
LLLWDH IFK Varnamo0–3
H IFK Norrkoping0–4
A United Nordic2–1
H Osters IF2–0
A Helsingborg0–0
Head to head
1
United
1
Draw
0
Norrby
Oct 2026United Nordic – Norrby IF2–1
Jun 2026Norrby IF – United Nordic0–0
Superettan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1IFK Norrkoping29+4365
2Falkenbergs FF29+1554
3Varbergs BoIS FC29+1148
4Ostersunds FK29+948
5Landskrona BoIS29+1447
6Oddevold29+1245
7Osters IF29+445
8United Nordic29-442
9Sandviken29+538
10IFK Varnamo29-1035
Match preview
Our model makes United Nordic slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.74 for United Nordic, 1.15 for Norrby IF), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
United Nordic sit 8th on 42 points; Norrby IF are 14th on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.