WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Den Dreef Stadium

Union St. Gilloise

6th · 7 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Real Sociedad

14th · 4 pts

57% Union

20% Draw

22% Real

OUR PICK

Union St. Gilloise to win

Model probability 57% · fair odds

1.75

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.30

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.75X4.8924.47

Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86

Both scoreGG1.55NG2.62

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.16

Over 1.5

86%

Over/Under 2.5@1.49

Over 2.5

67%

Both teams to score@1.55

64%

Double chance@1.26

80%

Season stats

Union St. GilloiseReal Sociedad

2.7Goals per game2.7

0.3Conceded per game1.0

2.33Points per game1.33

67%Win rate33%

7Goal difference5

7Form, last 5 (pts)4

Union St. Gilloise form

WWWWD

A SK Beveren1–2

H Cercle Brugge5–2

H Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0

H Nijlen3–0

H Real Sociedad1–1

Real Sociedad form

LWWWD

A Athletic Club2–1

H Levante2–1

A Lillestrom0–6

A Malaga2–5

A Union St. Gilloise1–1

Head to head

Union

Draw

Real

Oct 2026Union St. Gilloise – Real Sociedad1–1

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Benfica3+89

2Bayer Leverkusen3+89

3Bournemouth3+79

4Ferencvarosi TC3+69

5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39

6Union St. Gilloise3+77

7Juventus3+67

8Beşiktaş3+47

9Sunderland3+27

10AZ Alkmaar3+46

Match preview

Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.17 for Union St. Gilloise, 1.30 for Real Sociedad), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Union St. Gilloise sit 6th on 7 points; Real Sociedad are 14th on 4.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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