Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stade Joseph Marien
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 26 pts1–1FULL TIME
OH Leuven
13th · 9 pts86% Union
10% Draw
4% OH
OUR PICK
Union St. Gilloise to win
Model probability 86% · fair odds
1.16
Expected goals
3.18 – 0.63
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.16X10.42222.69
Goals 2.5Over1.37Under3.49
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.05
1X
96%
Season stats
Union St. GilloiseOH Leuven2.9Goals per game1.0
0.7Conceded per game1.7
2.60Points per game0.90
80%Win rate20%
22Goal difference-7
13Form, last 5 (pts)9
Union St. Gilloise form
WWWWDA SK Beveren1–2
H Cercle Brugge5–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0
H Nijlen3–0
H Real Sociedad1–1
OH Leuven form
WDWDWA St. Truiden1–2
H Lommel United2–2
H Francs Borains1–0
A Union St. Gilloise1–1
H RAAL La Louvière2–0
Head to head
2
Union
3
Draw
0
OH
Oct 2026Union St. Gilloise – OH Leuven1–1
Jan 2026OH Leuven – Union St. Gilloise0–0
Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise – OH Leuven5–0
Jan 2025Union St. Gilloise – OH Leuven1–0
Nov 2024OH Leuven – Union St. Gilloise1–1
Jupiler Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club Brugge KV10+1827
2Union St. Gilloise10+2226
3Gent10+1325
4Charleroi10+924
5Anderlecht10+219
6Genk10+415
7Lommel United10+215
8KVC Westerlo10014
9Standard Liege10-112
10Zulte Waregem10-411
Match preview
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites, giving them a 86% chance of winning against 10% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (3.18 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.63 for OH Leuven), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union St. Gilloise sit 2nd on 26 points; OH Leuven are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.