Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Merkur Spielarena
Union St. Gilloise
6th · 7 pts4–0FULL TIME
Hapoel Beer Sheva
30th · 1 pts58% Union
24% Draw
18% Hapoel
OUR PICK
Union St. Gilloise to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X4.1325.48
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer Sheva2.7Goals per game0.3
0.3Conceded per game2.0
2.33Points per game0.33
67%Win rate0%
7Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Union St. Gilloise form
WWWWDA SK Beveren1–2
H Cercle Brugge5–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0
H Nijlen3–0
H Real Sociedad1–1
Hapoel Beer Sheva form
WWLWLA Maccabi Petah Tikva2–5
A Maccabi Haifa2–5
A Union St. Gilloise4–0
H Hapoel Katamon2–1
A AZ Alkmaar2–1
Head to head
1
Union
0
Draw
0
Hapoel
Oct 2026Union St. Gilloise – Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.67 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.82 for Hapoel Beer Sheva), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union St. Gilloise sit 6th on 7 points; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 30th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.