Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 9Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stade Joseph Marien
Union St. Gilloise
2nd · 26 pts5–2FULL TIME
Cercle Brugge
18th · 3 pts85% Union
10% Draw
5% Cercle
OUR PICK
Union St. Gilloise to win
Model probability 85% · fair odds
1.18
Expected goals
3.06 – 0.63
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.18X9.68220.74
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
55%
Double chance@1.05
1X
95%
Season stats
Union St. GilloiseCercle Brugge2.9Goals per game1.2
0.7Conceded per game2.3
2.60Points per game0.33
80%Win rate0%
22Goal difference-10
13Form, last 5 (pts)1
Union St. Gilloise form
WWWWDA SK Beveren1–2
H Cercle Brugge5–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0
H Nijlen3–0
H Real Sociedad1–1
Cercle Brugge form
WLWLLH Antwerp2–1
A Union St. Gilloise5–2
A Sporting Hasselt1–2
H Anderlecht1–2
A Charleroi3–2
Head to head
2
Union
2
Draw
1
Cercle
Oct 2026Union St. Gilloise – Cercle Brugge5–2
Dec 2025Cercle Brugge – Union St. Gilloise1–1
Nov 2025Union St. Gilloise – Cercle Brugge2–0
Dec 2024Cercle Brugge – Union St. Gilloise0–0
Oct 2024Union St. Gilloise – Cercle Brugge1–3
Jupiler Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club Brugge KV10+1827
2Union St. Gilloise10+2226
3Gent9+1525
4Charleroi9+621
5Anderlecht10+219
6Genk10+415
7KVC Westerlo10014
8Lommel United9012
9Standard Liege10-112
10Zulte Waregem10-411
Match preview
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites, giving them a 85% chance of winning against 10% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (3.06 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.63 for Cercle Brugge), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union St. Gilloise sit 2nd on 26 points; Cercle Brugge are 18th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.