Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio 15 de Abril
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Velez Sarsfield
3rd · 28 pts38% Union
28% Draw
34% Velez
OUR PICK
Union Santa Fe to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.64
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.16
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.64X3.6122.90
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
Union Santa FeVelez Sarsfield1.5Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.31Points per game1.75
31%Win rate44%
4Goal difference6
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Velez Sarsfield form
DWWLDH San Lorenzo2–2
A Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5
H Gimnasia M.1–0
A Lanus2–0
H Platense2–2
Head to head
2
Union
2
Draw
1
Velez
Apr 2026Velez Sarsfield – Union Santa Fe2–2
Dec 2024Union Santa Fe – Velez Sarsfield1–0
Jul 2023Velez Sarsfield – Union Santa Fe0–0
Aug 2022Union Santa Fe – Velez Sarsfield2–1
Sept 2021Velez Sarsfield – Union Santa Fe4–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Union Santa Fe 38%, the draw 28%, Velez Sarsfield 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.23 for Union Santa Fe, 1.16 for Velez Sarsfield), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Santa Fe sit 8th on 21 points; Velez Sarsfield are 3rd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.