Over 1.5 goals@1.82
Over 1.5
55%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estadio 15 de Abril
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts3–1FULL TIME
Estudiantes L.P.
1st · 31 pts18% Union
30% Draw
51% Estudiantes
OUR PICK
Estudiantes L.P. to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
0.61 – 1.23
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.43X3.3121.95
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.23
X2
82%
Season stats
Union Santa FeEstudiantes L.P.1.5Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game0.4
1.31Points per game1.94
31%Win rate56%
4Goal difference12
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Estudiantes L.P. form
DLDLDH Instituto Cordoba3–3
A Union Santa Fe3–1
A Flamengo0–0
H San Lorenzo1–2
H Flamengo0–0
Head to head
2
Union
1
Draw
2
Estudiantes
Oct 2026Union Santa Fe – Estudiantes L.P.3–1
Apr 2026Estudiantes L.P. – Union Santa Fe2–1
Jul 2025Union Santa Fe – Estudiantes L.P.1–0
Jan 2025Estudiantes L.P. – Union Santa Fe3–1
Jul 2024Estudiantes L.P. – Union Santa Fe0–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Estudiantes L.P. clear favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.61 for Union Santa Fe, 1.23 for Estudiantes L.P.), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Santa Fe sit 8th on 21 points; Estudiantes L.P. are 1st on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.