Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio 15 de Abril
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts0–2FULL TIME
Defensa Y Justicia
10th · 19 pts62% Union
20% Draw
18% Defensa
OUR PICK
Union Santa Fe to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.62
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.07
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.62X4.9425.49
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Union Santa FeDefensa Y Justicia1.5Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.31Points per game1.19
31%Win rate25%
4Goal difference-3
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Defensa Y Justicia form
DWLWWH Independiente1–1
A Talleres Cordoba1–2
H Instituto Cordoba0–1
A Union Santa Fe0–2
H San Lorenzo3–0
Head to head
1
Union
2
Draw
2
Defensa
Oct 2026Union Santa Fe – Defensa Y Justicia0–2
Mar 2026Defensa Y Justicia – Union Santa Fe2–0
Oct 2025Union Santa Fe – Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Apr 2025Defensa Y Justicia – Union Santa Fe0–0
Dec 2024Defensa Y Justicia – Union Santa Fe0–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Union Santa Fe clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.13 for Union Santa Fe, 1.07 for Defensa Y Justicia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Santa Fe sit 8th on 21 points; Defensa Y Justicia are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.