Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 25Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Municipal Nicolas Chahuan
Union La Calera
16th · 21 pts3–1FULL TIME
U. Catolica
3rd · 46 pts17% Union
21% Draw
63% U.
OUR PICK
U. Catolica to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.04
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.96X4.8421.60
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
53%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
Union La CaleraU. Catolica0.9Goals per game2.0
1.7Conceded per game1.4
0.81Points per game1.77
19%Win rate54%
-20Goal difference16
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Union La Calera form
No recent matches.
U. Catolica form
DLDDWH A. Italiano1–1
A Union La Calera3–1
H Union La Calera0–0
A Union La Calera1–1
A Palestino2–3
Head to head
0
Union
0
Draw
0
U.
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Everton de Vina26+1040
5Palestino25+338
6Deportes Limache25+937
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Nublense26-935
9D. La Serena26-334
10Huachipato25-633
Match preview
Our model makes U. Catolica clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (0.95 for Union La Calera, 2.04 for U. Catolica), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union La Calera sit 16th on 21 points; U. Catolica are 3rd on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.