Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday, 10 October 2026 · An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin
16th · 7 pts1–0FULL TIME
SV Elversberg
7th · 13 pts22% Union
19% Draw
59% SV
OUR PICK
SV Elversberg to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
1.51 – 2.52
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.53X5.3921.68
Goals 2.5Over1.31Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
Union BerlinSV Elversberg0.9Goals per game2.0
2.4Conceded per game2.0
0.88Points per game1.63
13%Win rate50%
-12Goal difference0
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Union Berlin form
DLDDWH 1. FC Köln1–1
A 1. FC Köln5–0
A FC Augsburg1–1
H Borussia Dortmund0–0
H SV Elversberg1–0
SV Elversberg form
WLLWLH FSV Mainz 054–1
H SV Darmstadt 980–2
A RB Leipzig4–0
H FC Augsburg4–3
A Union Berlin1–0
Head to head
1
Union
0
Draw
0
SV
Oct 2026Union Berlin – SV Elversberg1–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes SV Elversberg clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (1.51 for Union Berlin, 2.52 for SV Elversberg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Berlin sit 16th on 7 points; SV Elversberg are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.