Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday, 17 October 2026 · An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin
16th · 7 pts0–0FULL TIME
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 18 pts14% Union
18% Draw
67% Borussia
OUR PICK
Borussia Dortmund to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.48
Expected goals
0.96 – 2.30
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.00X5.4521.48
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.17
X2
86%
Season stats
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund0.9Goals per game1.8
2.4Conceded per game0.8
0.88Points per game2.25
13%Win rate63%
-12Goal difference8
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Union Berlin form
DLDDWH 1. FC Köln1–1
A 1. FC Köln5–0
A FC Augsburg1–1
H Borussia Dortmund0–0
H SV Elversberg1–0
Borussia Dortmund form
DWWWDA Bayern München2–2
H Werder Bremen3–2
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
A Sabah FA1–2
A Union Berlin0–0
Head to head
1
Union
1
Draw
3
Borussia
Oct 2026Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund0–0
Jan 2026Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund0–3
Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund – Union Berlin3–0
Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund – Union Berlin6–0
Oct 2024Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund2–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (0.96 for Union Berlin, 2.30 for Borussia Dortmund), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Berlin sit 16th on 7 points; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.