Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 8Sunday, 1 November 2026 · An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin
16th · 7 pts1–1FULL TIME
1. FC Köln
13th · 9 pts30% Union
25% Draw
45% 1.
OUR PICK
1. FC Köln to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.58
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.34X4.0422.21
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Union Berlin1. FC Köln0.9Goals per game1.1
2.4Conceded per game1.5
0.88Points per game1.13
13%Win rate25%
-12Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Union Berlin form
DLDDWH 1. FC Köln1–1
A 1. FC Köln5–0
A FC Augsburg1–1
H Borussia Dortmund0–0
H SV Elversberg1–0
1. FC Köln form
DWDLWA Union Berlin1–1
H Union Berlin5–0
H FC Schalke 040–0
A Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–1
Head to head
0
Union
0
Draw
0
1.
These sides haven't met recently.
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes 1. FC Köln slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.24 for Union Berlin, 1.58 for 1. FC Köln), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Union Berlin sit 16th on 7 points; 1. FC Köln are 13th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.