Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa
União de Leiria
9th · 14 pts0–2FULL TIME
Academica
6th · 15 pts53% União
22% Draw
25% Academica
OUR PICK
União de Leiria to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.26
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.5124.02
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
União de LeiriaAcademica1.4Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.56Points per game1.67
44%Win rate56%
2Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)6
União de Leiria form
WDWLWH AVS2–1
A FC Porto B1–1
H Bragança2–1
H Academica0–2
A O Elvas0–2
Academica form
LWWWWA Vizela2–1
H Leixoes4–0
H Amarante3–2
A União de Leiria0–2
A Real1–4
Head to head
1
União
3
Draw
1
Academica
Oct 2026União de Leiria – Academica0–2
Jul 2024Academica – União de Leiria0–0
Jan 2023Academica – União de Leiria1–3
Sept 2022União de Leiria – Academica1–1
Jan 2012Academica – União de Leiria0–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes União de Leiria slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.93 for União de Leiria, 1.26 for Academica), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
União de Leiria sit 9th on 14 points; Academica are 6th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.