Over 1.5 goals@2.01
Over 1.5
50%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Sunday, 11 October 2026
Ulinzi Stars
17th · 2 pts0–2FULL TIME
Tusker
16th · 3 pts38% Ulinzi
34% Draw
28% Tusker
OUR PICK
Ulinzi Stars to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.74
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X2.9323.63
Goals 2.5Over4.10Under1.31
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Under 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.38
1X
72%
Season stats
Ulinzi StarsTusker0.3Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
0.50Points per game1.50
0%Win rate50%
-3Goal difference1
2Form, last 5 (pts)3
Ulinzi Stars form
LDDLWA Kenya Police1–0
H Mara Sugar0–0
A Homeboyz1–1
H Tusker0–2
A Posta Rangers FC0–1
Tusker form
LDLWWA Mathare United2–1
A Singida Black Stars1–1
H Singida Black Stars0–1
A Ulinzi Stars0–2
H Al Ahli Wad Medani1–0
Head to head
0
Ulinzi
0
Draw
0
Tusker
These sides haven't met recently.
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Ulinzi Stars slight favourites, giving them a 38% chance of winning against 34% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.93 for Ulinzi Stars, 0.74 for Tusker), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ulinzi Stars sit 17th on 2 points; Tusker are 16th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.