KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Monday, 2 November 2026

Ulinzi Stars

17th · 2 pts

11:00KICK-OFF WAT

Mathare United

9th · 5 pts

24% Ulinzi

42% Draw

34% Mathare

OUR PICK

Draw

Model probability 42% · fair odds

2.36

Expected goals

0.51 – 0.66

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X214.17X2.3622.98

Goals 2.5Over8.58Under1.13

Both scoreGG4.97NG1.24

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@3.06

Over 1.5

33%

Over/Under 2.5@1.13

Under 2.5

89%

Both teams to score@1.24

81%

Double chance@1.32

76%

Season stats

Ulinzi StarsMathare United

0.3Goals per game0.5

1.0Conceded per game0.5

0.50Points per game1.25

0%Win rate25%

-3Goal difference0

2Form, last 5 (pts)5

Ulinzi Stars form

No recent matches.

Mathare United form

No recent matches.

Head to head

Ulinzi

Draw

Mathare

These sides haven't met recently.

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia4+512

2KCB4+27

3Murang'a SEAL4+26

4Mara Sugar4+16

5AFC Leopards4+16

6Shabana4+16

7APS Bomet4+25

8Kenya Police405

9Mathare United405

103K4-25

Match preview

Our model makes Mathare United slight favourites, giving them a 34% chance of winning against 42% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.2 goals in total (0.51 for Ulinzi Stars, 0.66 for Mathare United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Ulinzi Stars sit 17th on 2 points; Mathare United are 9th on 5.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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