Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 3Saturday, 24 October 2026
Ulinzi Stars
12th · 5 pts0–0FULL TIME
Mara Sugar
8th · 6 pts31% Ulinzi
30% Draw
40% Mara
OUR PICK
Mara Sugar to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.24X3.3822.53
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.56
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
Ulinzi StarsMara Sugar0.6Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game0.8
1.00Points per game1.50
20%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Ulinzi Stars form
LDDLWA Kenya Police1–0
H Mara Sugar0–0
A Homeboyz1–1
H Tusker0–2
A Posta Rangers FC0–1
Mara Sugar form
LDDWDA Tusker3–1
H AFC Leopards0–0
A Ulinzi Stars0–0
H Mombasa Elite2–1
A 3K2–2
Head to head
1
Ulinzi
2
Draw
2
Mara
Oct 2026Ulinzi Stars – Mara Sugar0–0
Feb 2026Mara Sugar – Ulinzi Stars2–1
Oct 2025Ulinzi Stars – Mara Sugar1–2
May 2025Mara Sugar – Ulinzi Stars1–1
Jan 2025Ulinzi Stars – Mara Sugar1–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
43K5-18
5Murang'a SEAL5+27
6Migori Youth4+26
7APS Bomet5+26
8Mara Sugar4+16
9Shabana4+16
10Kenya Police405
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Ulinzi Stars 31%, the draw 30%, Mara Sugar 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.98 for Ulinzi Stars, 1.15 for Mara Sugar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ulinzi Stars sit 12th on 5 points; Mara Sugar are 8th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.