Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
82%
HUNNB I · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Szusza Ferenc Stadion
Ujpest
5th · 18 pts0–1FULL TIME
Puskas Academy
2nd · 21 pts50% Ujpest
23% Draw
27% Puskas
OUR PICK
Ujpest to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.28
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X4.3523.71
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
60%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
UjpestPuskas Academy1.7Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.50Points per game1.75
42%Win rate58%
3Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ujpest form
WWLLDH Nyiregyhaza2–1
A Szeged 20111–3
A Gyori ETO FC1–0
H Puskas Academy0–1
A Budapest Honved1–1
Puskas Academy form
LWLWWH Debreceni VSC1–3
A Diosgyori VTK1–2
H Nyiregyhaza1–2
A Ujpest0–1
A Gyori ETO FC0–1
Head to head
0
Ujpest
2
Draw
3
Puskas
Oct 2026Ujpest – Puskas Academy0–1
Apr 2026Puskas Academy – Ujpest2–0
Jan 2026Ujpest – Puskas Academy0–1
Oct 2025Puskas Academy – Ujpest0–0
Mar 2025Ujpest – Puskas Academy1–1
NB I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Gyori ETO FC12+722
2Puskas Academy12+221
3Ferencvarosi TC11+1020
4Debreceni VSC12+419
5Ujpest12+318
6Paks12+117
7Vasas12+316
8Budapest Honved11-313
9Zalaegerszegi TE12-613
10Kisvarda FC12-212
Match preview
Our model makes Ujpest slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.82 for Ujpest, 1.28 for Puskas Academy), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ujpest sit 5th on 18 points; Puskas Academy are 2nd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.