Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Bluenergy Stadium
Udinese
19th · 5 pts0–3FULL TIME
Lecce
14th · 9 pts54% Udinese
22% Draw
24% Lecce
OUR PICK
Udinese to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.26
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X4.6124.17
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
UdineseLecce1.1Goals per game1.1
2.3Conceded per game2.1
0.50Points per game0.90
10%Win rate30%
-12Goal difference-10
1Form, last 5 (pts)3
Udinese form
LDLLLH AS Roma2–5
A Parma0–0
H AC Milan0–2
H Lecce0–3
A Torino2–1
Lecce form
LLLWLH Genoa1–2
A Frosinone5–1
H Juventus0–2
A Udinese0–3
H Bologna1–2
Head to head
3
Udinese
0
Draw
2
Lecce
Oct 2026Udinese – Lecce0–3
Feb 2026Lecce – Udinese2–1
Oct 2025Udinese – Lecce3–2
Feb 2025Lecce – Udinese0–1
Oct 2024Udinese – Lecce1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Udinese slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.99 for Udinese, 1.26 for Lecce), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Udinese sit 19th on 5 points; Lecce are 14th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.