Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente
4th · 23 pts1–2FULL TIME
Utrecht
12th · 12 pts84% Twente
10% Draw
6% Utrecht
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 84% · fair odds
1.19
Expected goals
3.50 – 0.92
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.19X10.17216.53
Goals 2.5Over1.23Under4.97
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.23
Over 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.06
1X
94%
Season stats
TwenteUtrecht2.5Goals per game1.7
0.9Conceded per game2.8
2.09Points per game1.09
64%Win rate27%
18Goal difference-12
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
Utrecht form
LWDWWA Telstar4–2
A Kozakken Boys0–1
H PEC Zwolle1–1
A Twente1–2
H Willem II3–1
Head to head
2
Twente
1
Draw
2
Utrecht
Oct 2026Twente – Utrecht1–2
Mar 2026Twente – Utrecht0–2
Jan 2026Utrecht – Twente1–2
Dec 2025Utrecht – Twente1–1
May 2025Twente – Utrecht2–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Twente clear favourites, giving them a 84% chance of winning against 10% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (3.50 for Twente, 0.92 for Utrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Twente sit 4th on 23 points; Utrecht are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.