Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente
5th · 6 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Pafos
27th · 1 pts68% Twente
18% Draw
14% Pafos
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.47
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.92
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.47X5.4527.27
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
TwentePafos2.5Goals per game1.0
0.5Conceded per game2.0
3.00Points per game0.50
100%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-2
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
Pafos form
DDDDLA Apollon Limassol2–2
A Nea Salamis0–0
H Riga1–1
H Apoel Nicosia0–0
A Atalanta3–1
Head to head
0
Twente
0
Draw
0
Pafos
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Twente clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.28 for Twente, 0.92 for Pafos), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Twente sit 5th on 6 points; Pafos are 27th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.