Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente
5th · 6 pts1–0FULL TIME
FC Thun
32nd · 0 pts62% Twente
20% Draw
17% FC
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.99
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X4.8925.83
Goals 2.5Over1.69Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
TwenteFC Thun2.5Goals per game0.0
0.5Conceded per game1.0
3.00Points per game0.00
100%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-2
6Form, last 5 (pts)0
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
FC Thun form
WLLDLA Lausanne4–5
H FC Lugano2–3
H HNK Hajduk Split0–1
A FC Schaffhausen2–2
A Twente1–0
Head to head
1
Twente
0
Draw
0
FC
Oct 2026Twente – FC Thun1–0
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes Twente clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.08 for Twente, 0.99 for FC Thun), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Twente sit 5th on 6 points; FC Thun are 32nd on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.