Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente
4th · 23 pts14:30KICK-OFF WAT
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts50% Twente
22% Draw
28% Ajax
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.38
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X4.5023.61
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
TwenteAjax2.5Goals per game2.7
0.9Conceded per game1.2
2.09Points per game2.18
64%Win rate64%
18Goal difference17
10Form, last 5 (pts)11
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Head to head
2
Twente
1
Draw
2
Ajax
Apr 2026Ajax – Twente0–1
Apr 2026Ajax – Twente1–2
Oct 2025Twente – Ajax2–3
May 2025Ajax – Twente2–0
Nov 2024Twente – Ajax2–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Twente slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.92 for Twente, 1.38 for Ajax), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Twente sit 4th on 23 points; Ajax are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.