Over 1.5 goals@1.68
Over 1.5
60%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Monday, 2 November 2026
Tusker
13th · 3 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Mara Sugar
4th · 6 pts41% Tusker
30% Draw
28% Mara
OUR PICK
Tusker to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.88
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.2923.54
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.48
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.39
1X
72%
Season stats
TuskerMara Sugar1.5Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game0.8
1.50Points per game1.50
50%Win rate25%
1Goal difference1
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
Tusker form
No recent matches.
Mara Sugar form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Tusker
0
Draw
0
Mara
These sides haven't met recently.
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia4+512
2KCB4+27
3Murang'a SEAL4+26
4Mara Sugar4+16
5AFC Leopards4+16
6Shabana4+16
7APS Bomet4+25
8Kenya Police405
9Mathare United405
103K4-25
Match preview
Our model makes Tusker slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.13 for Tusker, 0.88 for Mara Sugar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tusker sit 13th on 3 points; Mara Sugar are 4th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.