Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Profertil Arena
TSV Hartberg
5th · 17 pts4–3FULL TIME
Austria Lustenau
10th · 8 pts69% TSV
17% Draw
14% Austria
OUR PICK
TSV Hartberg to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.45
Expected goals
2.52 – 1.05
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.45X5.8927.22
Goals 2.5Over1.45Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
TSV HartbergAustria Lustenau1.8Goals per game1.2
1.7Conceded per game2.6
1.55Points per game0.73
45%Win rate18%
1Goal difference-16
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
TSV Hartberg form
WDWLWA Grazer AK0–4
A Austria Vienna1–1
H Wolfsberger AC1–0
A Rapid Vienna3–1
H Austria Lustenau4–3
Austria Lustenau form
LWLLLA Red Bull Salzburg5–1
H Sturm Graz3–2
A Rapid Vienna5–1
H Lask Linz0–4
A TSV Hartberg4–3
Head to head
3
TSV
1
Draw
1
Austria
Oct 2026TSV Hartberg – Austria Lustenau4–3
Oct 2024Austria Lustenau – TSV Hartberg0–3
Oct 2023Austria Lustenau – TSV Hartberg0–4
Jul 2023TSV Hartberg – Austria Lustenau2–2
Jun 2023Austria Lustenau – TSV Hartberg5–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes TSV Hartberg clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.52 for TSV Hartberg, 1.05 for Austria Lustenau), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
TSV Hartberg sit 5th on 17 points; Austria Lustenau are 10th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.