Over 1.5 goals@2.43
Over 1.5
41%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio 20 de Octubre
Tristan Suarez
0–0FULL TIME
Quilmes
48% Tristan
36% Draw
16% Quilmes
OUR PICK
Tristan Suarez to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.44
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X2.7826.12
Goals 2.5Over5.55Under1.20
Both scoreGG4.29NG1.28
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.20
Under 2.5
83%
Both teams to score@1.28
NG
78%
Double chance@1.20
1X
84%
Tristan Suarez form
DDWDDH Deportivo Maipu0–0
A Almagro1–1
H Patronato1–0
A Colegiales0–0
H Quilmes0–0
Quilmes form
WWLLDA Gimnasia Y Tiro0–1
H San Martin Tucuman2–1
A Atletico DE Rafaela1–0
H Agropecuario0–1
A Tristan Suarez0–0
Head to head
3
Tristan
2
Draw
0
Quilmes
Oct 2026Tristan Suarez – Quilmes0–0
May 2026Quilmes – Tristan Suarez0–1
Oct 2025Quilmes – Tristan Suarez0–1
May 2025Tristan Suarez – Quilmes0–0
Sept 2024Quilmes – Tristan Suarez0–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Tristan Suarez clear favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 36% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.4 goals in total (0.97 for Tristan Suarez, 0.44 for Quilmes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.