Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
WALPremier League · Matchday 14Friday, 23 October 2026 · Ynys Park
Trefelin
15th · 6 pts0–2FULL TIME
Flint Town United
13th · 14 pts23% Trefelin
25% Draw
52% Flint
OUR PICK
Flint Town United to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.59
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.38X3.9821.92
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
TrefelinFlint Town United0.5Goals per game1.3
2.4Conceded per game1.7
0.40Points per game0.93
7%Win rate27%
-28Goal difference-6
3Form, last 5 (pts)12
Trefelin form
LLWWLA Barry Town3–0
H Flint Town United0–2
H Llantwit Major4–1
A Cardiff MET1–3
A Airbus UK3–0
Flint Town United form
WWLLWH Holywell5–0
A Trefelin0–2
H Caernarfon Town1–3
H Colwyn Bay0–1
A Haverfordwest County AFC0–1
Head to head
0
Trefelin
0
Draw
1
Flint
Oct 2026Trefelin – Flint Town United0–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Flint Town United slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.96 for Trefelin, 1.59 for Flint Town United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Trefelin sit 15th on 6 points; Flint Town United are 13th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.