Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
WALPremier League · Matchday 16Friday, 6 November 2026
Trefelin
15th · 6 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Colwyn Bay
5th · 29 pts11% Trefelin
19% Draw
71% Colwyn
OUR PICK
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.42
Expected goals
0.65 – 2.07
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.50X5.2821.42
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.12
X2
89%
Season stats
TrefelinColwyn Bay0.5Goals per game1.7
2.4Conceded per game1.1
0.40Points per game1.93
7%Win rate60%
-28Goal difference9
3Form, last 5 (pts)10
Trefelin form
LLWWLA Barry Town3–0
H Flint Town United0–2
H Llantwit Major4–1
A Cardiff MET1–3
A Airbus UK3–0
Colwyn Bay form
WDDWLH Cambrian & Clydach2–0
H Cardiff MET2–2
A Buckley Town2–2
A Flint Town United0–1
A Briton Ferry1–0
Head to head
0
Trefelin
0
Draw
1
Colwyn
Jul 2026Colwyn Bay – Trefelin2–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Colwyn Bay clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (0.65 for Trefelin, 2.07 for Colwyn Bay), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Trefelin sit 15th on 6 points; Colwyn Bay are 5th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.