Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 10Friday, 6 November 2026 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse
11th · 10 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Strasbourg
12th · 10 pts48% Toulouse
22% Draw
30% Strasbourg
OUR PICK
Toulouse to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.53
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X4.5923.31
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.48NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.48
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
ToulouseStrasbourg1.3Goals per game1.9
1.4Conceded per game2.1
1.11Points per game1.11
22%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-2
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Toulouse form
LDWDLA Marseille2–0
H Estac Troyes0–0
A Le Mans0–3
A Monaco2–2
H PAU2–3
Strasbourg form
WLLLLH Auxerre5–1
A Rennes3–0
H Paris Saint Germain1–3
A Nice2–1
A Paris FC2–1
Head to head
2
Toulouse
1
Draw
2
Strasbourg
May 2026Strasbourg – Toulouse1–2
Dec 2025Toulouse – Strasbourg1–0
Mar 2025Strasbourg – Toulouse2–1
Jan 2025Toulouse – Strasbourg1–2
Apr 2024Toulouse – Strasbourg0–0
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Toulouse slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.97 for Toulouse, 1.53 for Strasbourg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Toulouse sit 11th on 10 points; Strasbourg are 12th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.