Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stadium Municipal
Toulouse
11th · 10 pts0–0FULL TIME
Estac Troyes
16th · 8 pts61% Toulouse
21% Draw
18% Estac
OUR PICK
Toulouse to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.02
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X4.7925.49
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
ToulouseEstac Troyes1.3Goals per game0.8
1.4Conceded per game1.8
1.11Points per game0.89
22%Win rate22%
-1Goal difference-9
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Toulouse form
LDWDLA Marseille2–0
H Estac Troyes0–0
A Le Mans0–3
A Monaco2–2
H PAU2–3
Estac Troyes form
WDLLDH Le Mans2–0
A Toulouse0–0
H Lens1–3
H Marseille0–2
A Dijon2–2
Head to head
3
Toulouse
2
Draw
0
Estac
Oct 2026Toulouse – Estac Troyes0–0
Feb 2023Toulouse – Estac Troyes4–1
Aug 2022Estac Troyes – Toulouse0–3
Jul 2022Toulouse – Estac Troyes6–1
Feb 2021Estac Troyes – Toulouse1–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Toulouse clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.04 for Toulouse, 1.02 for Estac Troyes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Toulouse sit 11th on 10 points; Estac Troyes are 16th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.