Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · BMO Field
Toronto FC
3–3FULL TIME
Orlando City SC
51% Toronto
20% Draw
29% Orlando
OUR PICK
Toronto FC to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.81
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X5.1223.39
Goals 2.5Over1.27Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.32NG3.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.27
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.32
GG
76%
Double chance@1.24
12
80%
Toronto FC form
LWLWDA Atlanta United FC3–1
H DC United2–1
A Columbus Crew4–2
A New York Red Bulls0–2
H Orlando City SC3–3
Orlando City SC form
LDDWDA Charlotte4–0
A Chicago Fire2–2
H New York City FC2–2
H DC United4–1
A Toronto FC3–3
Head to head
1
Toronto
1
Draw
3
Orlando
Oct 2026Toronto FC – Orlando City SC3–3
Sept 2026Orlando City SC – Toronto FC3–0
Oct 2025Toronto FC – Orlando City SC4–2
Mar 2025Orlando City SC – Toronto FC4–2
Jul 2024Toronto FC – Orlando City SC1–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Toronto FC slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (2.39 for Toronto FC, 1.81 for Orlando City SC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.